WalMart has been one of the few bright spots in the retail industry over the past two years since the recession began. Its strong value proposition has reinforced its relationship with lower income Americans and has brought in more middle class consumers and some upper middle class folks as well. Everyone seems to be looking for a bargain or at least the lowest price on the items they need for everyday living.
Empirical evidence does show that more middle income consumers are willing to go to WalMart instead of Target and the other higher image stores they frequented in the past. The question remains can WalMart again try to win over these more affluent consumers for the long term and if they can, do they risk once again alienating their core customer?
Not more than a few years ago, WalMart in more robust times, was upgrading their stores, bringing in higher margin goods and "better" brand names. The plan failed simply because the more affluent consumer didn't become a regular consumer and the core customer felt that WalMart had forgotten them raised prices everywhere and drove these people to dollar stores.
WalMart, after a number of reporting periods with declining sales when others were doing well, figured it out...they did NOT belong in the more affluent consumer chase. They refocused their marketing and ad efforts back at savings and value and business began to boom again.
Along comes the recession and WalMart is perfectly positioned to benefit...and has...from this difficult economic environment. Yes, not unexpectedly given the extent of this near depression economy, more middle class shoppers (who now see themselves a lower middle income) have turned to WalMart. Some upper middle class shoppers (who now see themselves as more middle class) have also sought out savings at the big W. WalMart is benefiting greatly.
Now comes word that the retail giant is not satisfied and is hell-bent on figuring out a way to keep the higher income more status conscious shopper long term. They are already back bringing in higher margin goods, better brands and more "service". The stores are getting major overalls to look more like Targets (again). Will it work this time?
Yes and No.
To some extent the answer is YES because we have seen a significant buying behavioral change among middle and upper middle income consumers. They are giving up their need for status consumption (they can't afford it) and going for the basics with an occasional indulgence. They are acting more like lower income consumers than ever before. I do see a lot of these people continuing to shop for bargains and value over image and prestige long term. This recession has had a profound effect on millions of Americans. They like saving money and the stigma of shopping at WalMart is fading because saving money is more important than where something is purchased.
Will these consumers spend more at WalMart? They already are buying more than commodity items there. But, there does remain a major risk. Going too upscale with goods and brands may again backfire because consumers are in general doing without stuff they do not need regardless of store. Thus, WalMart could get stuck with inventory they shouldn't have added in the first place. I also believe some portion of the upper middle income consumer who now is willing to shop at WalMart will choose to go elsewhere when conditions improve why?
Simple. People still have a tendency to gravitate to people like themselves or those of a higher income level (if they can get into that club). I do not see that psychological element changing long term. Shopping at WalMart is still a stigma for many not just because it is WalMart but because of the fact that it still attracts the kind of lower income folks upper middle income people really rather not shop around.
In research my firm has conducted, we found upper middle income consumers still wary of unemployed young people loitering around the WalMart stores, especially in their parking lots. They find the stores unattractive (even the upgraded ones) and the service extremely poor (despite efforts to improve it). Finally, even though buying cheap is chic, upper middle income consumers still need to feel good about where they shop and indications are most will abandon WalMart when the economy turns upwards or sooner if other more image oriented retailers lure them back with better pricing and values.
Research also shows that lower income shoppers are having a harder time making ends meet at all and feel that WalMart is still charging more than they should for basics. Further, as before, when lower income shopper see (empirical evidence) more well-heeled folks in "their" store, they become suspicious that prices are going up further and feel maybe it's time to go elsewhere for better prices. Finally, research shows that prices are good at WalMart but many times not the lowest. Surprisingly, more upscale retailers and sundry/drug stores are competing with WalMart prices and in cases beating them. Consumers are more savvy than ever and will seek out the "best" prices. WalMart is trying to deal with this new competition by advertising they are constantly researching other stores prices to "ensure" the best prices in their stores....they clearly are aware their value positioning is being challenged by a whole new set of competitors.
Interest times. Interesting stuff. I will continue to monitor the WalMart strategy shift and report back as new information and findings surface. Until then....
Watching out for you everyday.
Eli
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